Tiny-overfit gates
4/4 all arms reached exact 1.0 measuredNeedle 2: The 45M Capacity Boundary
The lab first gave Needle the oracle task family, then trained plain and distractor-negative data under standard and safety-weighted losses. Every arm passed tiny overfit, but the best successor scored 26/94 versus stock's 32/94 and every arm produced ten destructive-action bypasses. The safety stop prevented a wasteful sweep and kept sealed V2 unopened. That is a useful capacity-boundary result, not a product candidate.
Headline Numbers
Evidence class applies to each value: measured = retained evaluation or runtime result; historical = recorded result not freshly reproduced; derived = calculated or decided from records; observed = current artifact state; not-measured = an explicit evidence gap.
Best successor
26/94 27.7% vs stock 34.0% measuredDestructive bypasses
10 vs 2 best arm vs stock; unsafe stop measuredCompetitive Context
| System | Metric | Score | Size / Class | Comparable? | Readout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Needle 2 full catalog | exact tool selection | 34.0% | 94 public fixtures | Direct | Included eight out-of-scope false calls and two destructive-action calls. |
| Needle 2 oracle task catalog | exact tool selection | 38.3% | same 94 fixtures | Direct | The upstream task family was supplied; this does not prove Needle can discover it. |
| Best trained 45M successor | exact tool selection | 27.7% | 94 public-development fixtures | Direct | Distractor plus safety weighting was the best arm, but remained below stock and failed the destructive-action stop. |
Direct rows share this artifact's eval setup. Directional rows are useful market context but should not be read as leaderboard claims.
Successor factorial
| Training data | Loss | Exact | Destructive bypasses |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plain | Standard | 24/94 | 10 |
| Plain | Safety | 24/94 | 10 |
| Distractor | Standard | 25/94 | 10 |
| Distractor | Safety | 26/94 | 10 |
Release Blockers
45M capacity boundary
All four trained arms passed memorization but regressed public exactness and multiplied destructive bypasses.
Unblock: Open a fresh scoped experiment for a 1.7B successor under the same frozen public and sealed gates.