Arena Elo
Only two interacting policies, win/draw/loss outcomes, one frozen pool, and match-level uncertainty.
Candidate arena · 2 rating families · 0 hidden conversions
Rate the match.
Show the doubt.
Head-to-head games earn Arena Elo. Independent games earn paired score evidence. Neither becomes a universal intelligence number.
Rating console
One arena, honest vocabularies.
Competition familyHead-to-head
RatingArena Elo
Evidence4 games · 2 forfeits
1200130014001500160017001800
The 170-point gap is a regularized diagnostic from four games—not a qualified rank. Two 4B wins came from 9B notation forfeits. This pool-specific Arena Elo is not FIDE, human, engine, Chess.com, or Lichess Elo.
Competition familyIndependent episodes
RatingPaired score
Why not EloNo interacting opponent
−20−100+10+20+30
Paired delta compares each model with random legal play on the same seed. The interval crossing zero means no demonstrated advantage.
Evidence ledger
A number is the last column, not the first.
Paired delta
Single-player policies share seeds with a baseline. Mean score and uncertainty stay in the game’s own units.
Estimate ≠ rating
The math can produce a diagnostic before the sample can support a public rank. We show both states.
Extension contract
Add a game without rewriting the arena.
- 1
Choose a family. Head-to-head result or independent paired score.
- 2
Normalize evidence. Participant identity, outcomes, failures, trace hashes, and source paths.
- 3
Freeze qualification. Sample, balance, connectivity, and failure limits before scoring.
- 4
Reuse the report. The validator, uncertainty engine, and dashboard remain unchanged.